Releases Saturday 26 February 2000
No 7234 Volume 320

Please remember to credit the BMJ as source when publicising an
article and to tell your readers that they can read its full text on the
journal's web site (http://www.bmj.com).

If your story is posted on a website please include a link back to
the source BMJ article (URL's are given under titles).



(1) UK HEALTH SPENDING WON'T REACH
EUROPEAN UNION AVERAGE WITH CURRENT
GROWTH RATES

(2) BLOOD SCREENING TEST FOR DOWN'S
SYNDROME NO MORE EFFECTIVE THAN SIMPLY
USING AGE AND SCANS

(3) SHORT CHILDREN MORE LIKELY TO BE BULLIED
AT SCHOOL



(1) UK HEALTH SPENDING WON'T REACH
EUROPEAN UNION AVERAGE WITH CURRENT
GROWTH RATES

(Getting UK health care expenditure up to the European
Union mean. What does that mean?)
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/320/7235/640

The government's stated intention to equal the European
Union (EU) average spend on health care by 2006 cannot
possibly be realised on the basis of current growth rates,
concludes a study in this week's BMJ.

A study from the Office of Health Economics shows that the
government's plan to reach an NHS spend equal to 8 per
cent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2006 is based on
faulty calculations. The UK's GDP spend on health care is
currently 6.7 per cent, one of the lowest in the EU.

The government intends to increase the NHS budget by 5 per
cent a year, after adjusting for inflation, to reach its target.
But, argue director Adrian Towse and associate director, Jon
Sussex, the real annual growth required to reach this is 5.8
per cent from next year.

Furthermore, the UK's low GDP spend drags down the EU
average. The rest of the EU actually spends 9.1 per cent of
its GDP on health care: to bring the UK in line with the rest of
the EU, therefore, say the authors, means the same GDP
spend. And to achieve that, the UK is looking at an annual
increase in the health budget of between 7.7 to 8.7 per cent.
The UK does not include nursing home care in its health
spend calculations, unlike some of the other EU countries; if it
were to do so, the lower figure would apply.

As a political goal, aiming for the average EU rate of
expenditure is sensible, say the authors, because GDP is
strongly linked to spending on health care, and the average
income in the UK now matches that of the EU. But, they
conclude: "Without additional funds, the NHS will struggle to
meet the government's ambitious agenda for a more effective
and consumer responsive, 'modernised' health service."

And the bad news is, that even if the government sticks to its
8 per cent target, other areas of public expenditure will suffer
unless taxes rise, to compensate, conclude the authors.

Contact:

Adrian Towse, Office of Health Economics, London.
Email: atowse@abpi.org.uk

(2) BLOOD SCREENING TEST FOR DOWN'S
SYNDROME NO MORE EFFECTIVE THAN SIMPLY
USING AGE AND SCANS

(Six year survey of screening for Down's syndrome by
maternal age and mid-trimester ultrasound scans)
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/320/7235/606

Antenatal screening for Down's syndrome using a blood
test-serum screening, sometimes known as the "triple test" - is
no more likely to detect the condition than using the mother's
age and ultrasound scans, finds research in this week's BMJ.
Furthermore, the method was introduced without any
scientific evidence for its clinical effectiveness, say the
authors.

Since 1992, serum screening has been widely accepted as
the preferred method for antenatal detection of Down's
syndrome, the risk of which rises with age, especially after
35. Despite its additional costs, the test was introduced on
the assumption that it can detect around two thirds of all
affected pregnancies compared with less than a third on the
basis of age alone.

David Howe and colleagues from the Wessex Maternal and
Fetal Medicine Unit at the Princess Anne Hospital,
Southampton, assessed the antenatal detection rate of
Down's syndrome among all women booked for delivery at
the hospital over six years up to the end of 1998. Screening
for Down's at the hospital is based primarily on older age,
with amniocentesis offered to women 35 years and older. All
women are also routinely offered an ultrasound scan at 19
weeks, followed by invasive testing, such as amniocentesis, if
indicated by the scan.

Fifty seven cases of Down's syndrome were detected from
among over 31,000 pregnancies' a rate of 1.7 in 1000 live
births, and equivalent to national figures. Just over two thirds
of all cases were detected antenatally. In women below the
age of 35 this rate was 53 per cent, with most of the cases
detected by scanning.

Although the antenatal detection rate was lower in younger
women, say the authors, serum screening is also less effective
in this age group. Among the 17 cases that were not detected
antenatally, seven of the mothers had refused invasive testing
and three cases occurred in twin pregnancies, where serum
screening would not be effective.

None of the arguments advanced for the introduction of
serum screening, including that it is cost effective, holds
water, conclude the authors. Worryingly, they say, serum
screening has not been submitted to the rigours of a
comparative trial to produce clinical evidence of its
effectiveness.

Contact:

Dr David Howe, Wessex Maternal and Fetal Medicine Unit,
Princess Anne Hospital, Southampton.
Email: dth@soton.ac.uk
D.T.Howe@soton.ac.uk

(3) SHORT CHILDREN MORE LIKELY TO BE BULLIED
AT SCHOOL

(Bullying in school: are short pupils at risk? Questionnaire
study in a cohort)
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/320/7235/612

Short children are more likely than those of average size to
complain of being bullied at school, suggests research in this
week's BMJ. But, say Linda Voss and Jean Mulligan from
University Child Health at Southampton General Hospital,
teachers report that being short does not stop short children,
including girls from being bullies themselves.

The team compared two groups of teenagers, the average
age of whom was 14. Ninety two of them were short for their
age; 117 were of average height. The children filled in
questionnaires designed to find out how often they had been
bullied, and additional information was gathered from
teachers, parents, and school records.

More short pupils claimed to have been bullied at some point
in secondary school. Short boys were twice as likely as their
taller peers to say that they had been the victims of bullying,
and much more likely to say that bullying upset them.
Significantly more of the short children said that bullying had
started in junior school and that they were still being bullied.
Although short children had as many friends as their taller
peers, they tended to spend significantly more break time
alone, which could be either the result or the cause of their
bullying, say the authors.

Teachers also reported that significantly more short pupils
were the victims of bullying. But according to parents, who
reported more bullying than either the teachers or the children
themselves, a lot of taller children are also bullied. Among
those of average height, significantly fewer girls than boys
were bullies. But short girls were as likely to be bullies as any
of the boys - short or tall.

Contact:

Ms Linda Voss, Child Health, Derriford Hospital, Plymouth.
Email: linda.voss@phnt.swest.nhs.uk


FOR ACCREDITED JOURNALISTS

Embargoed press releases and articles are available from:

Public Affairs Division
BMA House
Tavistock Square
London WC1H 9JR
(contact: pressoffice@bma.org.uk)

and from:

the EurekAlert website, run by the American Association for the
Advancement of Science
(http://www.eurekalert.org)