Releases Saturday 26 April 2003
No 7395 Volume 326

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(1) PRIVATE FINANCE INITIATIVE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH NHS DOWNSIZING AND BED
REDUCTIONS

(2) MANUAL THERAPY IS EFFECTIVE TREATMENT
FOR NECK PAIN

(3) CERVICAL SCREENING IS WORKING WELL,
BUT IS LABOUR INTENSIVE

(4) DELAY IN SPOTTING TB IS MORE COMMON IN
WHITE PEOPLE AND WOMEN

(5) COMMON SARS POLICY FOR SCHOOLS
URGENTLY NEEDED



(1) PRIVATE FINANCE INITIATIVE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH NHS DOWNSIZING AND BED
REDUCTIONS

(Downsizing of acute inpatient beds associated with
private finance initiative: Scotland's case study)
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/326/7395/905

The private finance initiative (PFI) in Lothian, Scotland
has not reached its targets for inpatient admissions and
performance, show researchers in this week's BMJ. The
effect has been a cut in services and downsizing of
hospital and community facilities compared with other
NHS hospitals in Scotland.

The high costs of using PFI in replacement NHS
hospitals in the UK is associated with bed reductions of
around 30% in first wave schemes. The Scottish
Executive and Department of Health maintain that these
plans will result in improvements in hospital performance
and expanded community provision.

Matthew Dunnigan and Allyson Pollock analysed
projected and actual trends in bed capacity and inpatient
and day case admissions in Lothian in the first five years
(1995-6 to 2000-1) of the PFI plan for the new Royal
Infirmary of Edinburgh.

They also set out to establish whether there was a "PFI
effect" by comparing clinical activity and performance in
Lothian with the rest of Scotland.

By 2000-1, 81% of the planned bed cuts for Lothian
had been achieved. However, the projected 21%
increase in inpatient and day case admissions to all acute
specialties only reached 0.3%. Inpatient admissions to
surgical specialties were projected to rise by 8% but
actual admissions fell by 13% due to severe capacity
constraints.

Despite predictions that the length of stay in hospital
would fall, the total reduction across all acute specialties
was just 0.1 days, while length of stay across surgical
admissions rose. Long stay geriatric beds and private
nursing home beds continued to close, and the
proportion of delayed discharges was higher than the
Scottish average.

The analysis shows strong evidence of reduced service
delivery across Lothian and its associated PFI
development compared with other Scottish NHS
hospitals, say the authors. Further hospital and
community service downsizing may be required to meet
the current financial deficit, principally due to the high
costs of PFI, they conclude.

Contacts:

Allyson Pollock, Professor, School of Public Policy,
University College London, UK
Email: allyson.pollock@ucl.ac.uk

or

Matthew Dunnigan, Senior Research Fellow, Glasgow
Royal Infirmary, Scotland

(2) MANUAL THERAPY IS EFFECTIVE TREATMENT
FOR NECK PAIN

(Cost effectiveness of physiotherapy, manual therapy,
and general practitioner care for neck pain: economic
evaluation alongside a randomised controlled trial)
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/326/7395/911

Manual therapy is more effective and less costly for
treating neck pain than physiotherapy or care by a
general practitioner, claim researchers in this week's
BMJ.

The study involved 183 patients recruited by 42 general
practitioners in the Netherlands. All patients were aged
18-70 years and had suffered neck pain for at least two
weeks. Sixty patients received manual therapy (spinal
mobilisation), 59 received physiotherapy (mainly
exercise), and 64 received standard care from a general
practitioner (counselling, education, and drugs).

After 26 weeks, patients in the manual therapy group
recovered more quickly than the physiotherapy group
and the general practitioner care group, but differences
were negligible by 52 weeks. The total costs of manual
therapy were around one third of the costs in the other
two groups.

"Our findings showed manual therapy to be more cost
effective than physiotherapy and continued care
provided by a general practitioner in the treatment of
non-specific neck pain," conclude the authors.

Contact:

Ingeborg Korthals-de Bos, Research Fellow, Institute
for Research in Extramural Medicine, VU University
Medical Centre, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Email: ibc.korthals-de_bos.emgo@med.vu.nl

(3) CERVICAL SCREENING IS WORKING WELL,
BUT IS LABOUR INTENSIVE

(Outcomes of screening to prevent cancer: analysis of
cumulative incidence of cervical abnormality and
modelling of cases and deaths prevented)
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/326/7395/901

The NHS cervical screening programme is working well
and preventing deaths, but is labour and resource
intensive - around 1,000 women need to be screened for
35 years to prevent one death, say researchers in this
week's BMJ.

Dr Angela Raffle and colleagues analysed the screening
records of 350,000 women over 20 years and modelled
cases of cervical cancer and deaths with and without
screening.

Their results suggest that 8 out of every 10 women with
"high grade" cell change will not go on to develop
cancer, but all need to be treated.

For each death prevented at least 150 women have
abnormal test results, over 80 women are referred to
specialist clinics for investigation, and over 50 have
treatment. At least one woman will die of cervical cancer
despite participating in screening.

These findings have important implications, say the
authors. For instance, even women who receive results
of borderline changes can become anxious about their
risk of cancer, so it is essential to change people's
perception of the meaning of an abnormal screening
result.

Furthermore, because of the resources involved and the
potential to do harm, it is in the public's interest to
control the introduction of cancer screening programmes
that have not been adequately evaluated or quality
assured, they conclude.

Contact:

Angela Raffle, Consultant in Public Health Medicine,
Bristol North Primary Care Trust, Bristol, UK Tel (via
Vicky O'Loughlin, Press Officer): +44 (0)117 900 2694
Email: angela.raffle@bristolnorth-pct.nhs.uk

(4) DELAY IN SPOTTING TB IS MORE COMMON IN
WHITE PEOPLE AND WOMEN

(Delay in the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis,
London, 1998-2000: analysis of surveillance data)
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/326/7395/909

Delays in diagnosing tuberculosis are more common in
white people and women, finds a study in this week's
BMJ.

Researchers analysed surveillance data and a national
survey to estimate delays in tuberculosis diagnosis in
London from 1998 to 2000.

They found a median delay of 49 days. Delays between
onset of symptoms and diagnosis were more likely for
white patients and women. This might be because
tuberculosis may be suspected and investigated more
readily among men or black or Asian people, suggest the
authors.

Recent campaigns have appropriately tried to raise
awareness of tuberculosis, particularly among ethnic
minority groups, say the authors. "Our data suggest that
campaigns also need to be targeted at white people, who
comprise a third of cases, they conclude.

Contacts:

Shabbar Jaffar, Senior Lecturer, or Alison Rodger,
Specialist Registrar, Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,
London, UK
Email: shabbar.jaffar@lshtm.ac.uk / alison.rodger@lshtm.ac.uk

(5) COMMON SARS POLICY FOR SCHOOLS
URGENTLY NEEDED

(Letter: Policies on SARS are confused in UK boarding
schools)
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/326/7395/929

The Government should urgently develop a common
SARS policy for UK boarding schools, according to a
letter in this week's BMJ.

Current school policies on SARS are confusing, writes
Ian Wong at the University of London School of
Pharmacy. Some Chinese students are subjected to
quarantine imposed by their schools, while one school is
reported to be excluding students returning from certain
parts of the Far East after Easter.

Yet the Health Protection Agency states that there is no
need for students returning from areas affected by SARS
to be excluded or quarantined unless they are unwell.

The author identified SARS policies in 10 UK boarding
schools. Five schools followed the Health Protection
Agency's recommendation, and four stated that up to 10
day's quarantine was required. One school advised
students "not to return for the summer term until such a
time that the school is satisfied that the virus is
understood, contained, and an appropriate treatment is
available."

The author urges the Department for Education and
Skills and the Department of Health to work together in
this matter urgently and develop a common policy for
schools. This will assist schools in making rational
decisions and more importantly address the fear of
parents and children.

Contact:

Ian Wong, Director, Centre for Paediatric Pharmacy
Research, School of Pharmacy, University of London
and the Institute of Child Health, University College
London, UK
Email: ian.wong@ulsop.ac.uk


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