Releases Saturday 29 November 2003
No 7426 Volume 327

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(1) NHS MAKES BAD USE OF HOSPITAL BEDS

(2) MAJOR INEQUALITIES IN ACCESS TO KIDNEY
TRANSPLANT WAITING LIST REVEALED

(3) HEART DISEASE RISK IN BRITISH MEN IS
OVERESTIMATED

(4) ASPIRIN IS MOST COST EFFECTIVE WAY TO
PREVENT HEART DISEASE



(1) NHS MAKES BAD USE OF HOSPITAL BEDS

(Hospital bed utilisation in the NHS, Kaiser Permanente,
and the US Medicare programme: analysis of routine
data)
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/327/7426/1257

(Editorial: Making sense of Kaiser Permanente: lessons
for the NHS)
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/327/7426/1241

The NHS uses up to three and a half times the number of
hospital bed days for conditions such as stroke and hip
fracture as health organisations in the United States,
according to researchers in this week's BMJ.

They compared the NHS with two health organisations
(Kaiser Permanente in California and the Medicare
Programme in California and the United States) using
data on admission rates, lengths of stay, and bed days
for 11 leading causes of use of acute beds in people
aged over 65.

They found that the NHS uses three and a half times the
number of acute bed days as Kaiser Permanente, twice
the number as Medicare in California, and 50% more
than Medicare in the United States for these causes.

These findings confirm that there is scope for acute
hospital beds to be used differently in the NHS, say the
authors. They suggest that the NHS can learn from
Kaiser's integrated approach and their experience of
engaging doctors in developing and supporting this
model of care.

Contact:

Chris Ham, Director, Strategy Unit, Department of
Health, London, UK
Email: Chris.Ham@doh.gsi.gov.uk

(2) MAJOR INEQUALITIES IN ACCESS TO KIDNEY
TRANSPLANT WAITING LIST REVEALED

(Equity of access to renal transplant waiting list and renal
transplantation in Scotland: cohort study)
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/327/7426/1261

Major inequalities exist in access to the kidney (renal)
transplant waiting list and renal transplantation in
Scotland, finds a study in this week's BMJ. These
inequalities may also exist elsewhere in the United
Kingdom.

Researchers identified 4,523 adults starting renal
replacement therapy in Scotland between January 1989
and December 1999. They followed them to placement
on the waiting list, transplantation, death, or end of the
study (31 December 2000).

A total of 1,736 (38%) of patients were placed on the
waiting list for renal transplantation and 1,095 (24%)
underwent transplantation during the study period.

Patients were less likely to be placed on the list if they
were female, older, had diabetes, were socially
deprived, or were treated in a hospital with no transplant
unit. Patients living furthest away from the transplant
centre were listed more quickly.

This is the first time that inequalities in access to the renal
transplant waiting list have been identified in this way in
the United Kingdom, say the authors.

These inequalities may also exist elsewhere in the United
Kingdom because of similarities in the management of
patients with end stage renal failure, referral patterns for
transplantation, and the transplantation process, they
conclude.

Contact:

John Forsythe, Consultant Surgeon, Transplant Unit,
New Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
Email: john.forsythe@luht.scot.nhs.uk

(3) HEART DISEASE RISK IN BRITISH MEN IS
OVERESTIMATED

(Predictive accuracy of the Framingham coronary risk
score in British men: prospective cohort study)
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/327/7426/1267

(Editorial: Risk factor scoring for coronary heart disease)
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/327/7426/1238

Current scoring methods over-predict the risk of death
from coronary heart disease in British men, according to
a study in this week's BMJ.

Researchers assessed the accuracy of the Framingham
risk equation for coronary heart disease in 6,643 British
men aged 40-59 years. All men were initially free of
heart disease.

Over a 10 year period, 2.8% of men died from coronary
heart disease compared with 4.1% predicted ± a
overestimation of 47%. A fatal or non-fatal coronary
heart disease event occurred in 10.2% of the men
compared with 16% predicted ± an overestimation of
57%.

The degree of over-prediction was similar at all risk
levels, so that overestimation of absolute risk was
greatest for people at highest risk. However, a simple
adjustment by the authors improved the level of
accuracy.

These finding have important implications, say the
authors. For instance, an overestimated assessment of
coronary heart disease risk will undermine a patient's
ability to make an informed choice about starting
preventive treatment, may cause unnecessary anxiety,
and may affect life insurance premiums.

Contact:

Peter Brindle, Wellcome Training Fellow in Health
Services Research, Department of Social Medicine,
University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Email: peter.brindle@bristol.ac.uk

(4) ASPIRIN IS MOST COST EFFECTIVE WAY TO
PREVENT HEART DISEASE

(Coronary heart disease prevention: insights from
modelling incremental cost effectiveness)
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/327/7426/1264

(Editorial: What do we gain from the sixth coronary heart
disease drug?)
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/327/7426/1237

Aspirin and blood pressure lowering drugs can prevent
heart disease at a fraction of the cost of cholesterol
lowering drugs (statins) and clopidogrel (an anti-clotting
drug), finds a study in this week's BMJ.

Estimates of cost and effectiveness were obtained for
aspirin, antihypertensive drugs, statins and clopidogrel.
Cost per coronary event was calculated for treatments
individually and in combination for patients at various
levels of risk.

The most cost effective preventive treatments were
aspirin and antihypertensive drugs, whereas simvastatin
and clopidogrel were the least cost effective.

For instance, cost per coronary event prevented in a
patient at 10% risk over five years was £3,500 for
aspirin, £12,500 for initial antihypertensives, £18,300 for
intensive antihypertensives, £60,000 for clopidogrel, and
£61,400 for simvastatin.

These results cast doubt on present policy, says the
author. A more efficient prevention strategy would be to
offer most men over 55 and most women over 65 aspirin
than to give statins to a few high-risk patients.

Contact:

Tom Marshall, Clinical Lecturer, Department of Public
Health and Epidemiology, University of Birmingham, UK
Email (can be picked up from Boston):
T.P.Marshall@bham.ac.uk


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